Indicated by Changes in Census Dates

New Delhi : Census operations have been deferred in four states Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Goa. while the first phase of the census has been postponed in the fifth state, Manipur. These decisions make it almost certain that the next round of assembly elections in these five states will take place in February-March of next year.

Among these five states, the term of the Manipur Legislative Assembly expires earliest, on March 13, 2027. The terms of the Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh assemblies expire on March 14, March 16, March 18, and May 22, respectively.

Elections were held simultaneously in these five states in 2022, but the first sitting of the UP Legislative Assembly took place on May 22, 2022. Since simultaneous elections are scheduled for 2027 as well, the Election Commission is likely to follow its traditional practice of completing the electoral process before the term of the assembly that expires earliest (Manipur, March 13) comes to an end. By this calculation, voting in UP could take place approximately two months before the assembly’s term expires.

Thus, the assembly elections in UP would be held about two months prior to the expiration of its term. This aligns with the pattern observed in the last three elections. Under its constitutional mandate, the Election Commission can conduct elections in a state at any time within the six months preceding the expiration of the assembly’s term.

In a large and populous state like UP, multi-phase voting is almost certain; however, looking at the Election Commission’s past precedents in Bihar and West Bengal, the number of phases could be reduced. If the Commission decides to limit the election to two phases as was done in Bihar voting could commence as early as February or the beginning of March. The Special Summary Revision (SSR) process has already been completed in three of the poll-bound states and is underway in the remaining two; therefore, it is unlikely that the Election Commission will conduct an SSR there before the announcement of the assembly elections. Upon the conclusion of the SSR, the voter count stood at 13.4 crore in UP (a 13.2% decrease), 10.6 lakh in Goa (down by 10.2%), and 19.3 lakh in Manipur (a 7.6% drop). Final electoral rolls for Punjab and Uttarakhand will be released in the coming months.

The Centre announced its decision to conduct the population enumeration phase of the 2027 Census with a reference date of January 5 between December 1, 2026, and January 4, 2027, in Goa and the snow-free areas of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Uttarakhand. It also announced the deferral of the house-listing phase of the census in Manipur.

Conducting the population enumeration phase earlier in these four poll-bound states will help avoid logistical challenges that could arise from a clash between the standard census timeline and the assembly elections. Both the election and census processes rely on the same pool of government employees primarily teachers for their execution.

Typically, the second phase of the census takes place across the country in February, with March 1 serving as the reference date.

Report – Abhijit Tushar Bhatt (Political Editor)