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Mumbai Braces For A Warmer Winter As El Niño Expected To Strengthen
Mumbai : Mumbaikars could be in for a warmer-than-usual winter this year as the ongoing El Niño phenomenon is expected to strengthen further over the coming months, potentially influencing weather conditions across the city. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), El Niño is currently in the moderate category and is likely to intensify through November and December, with the possibility of reaching the “very strong” category between October and December 2026.
IMD Mumbai has indicated that if the phenomenon continues to persist and strengthen, Mumbai could experience warmer conditions in the months ahead, including the possibility of a relatively warmer winter season. For a coastal city like Mumbai, where winter temperatures are generally mild compared with several other parts of India, even a small rise in temperatures could be noticeable for residents, particularly during mornings and evenings when the city usually experiences its coolest conditions.
A warmer winter could mean fewer noticeably cool days and a shorter spell of pleasant weather for Mumbaikars who look forward to the city’s brief winter season after the monsoon and humid post-monsoon period. The current El Niño event is also expected to remain active into early 2027. The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has forecast that the phenomenon could persist through February 2027, suggesting that its influence may extend beyond the peak winter months. However, experts have cautioned that the impact of El Niño on Mumbai’s local temperatures cannot be determined on the basis of the phenomenon alone.
Mumbai’s weather is influenced by a combination of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, including sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, humidity and other regional weather systems. Therefore, while a strengthening El Niño could increase the possibility of warmer-than-normal conditions, it does not necessarily mean that every day of winter will be hotter than usual. The exact temperature trend, intensity of winter and number of cooler days will become clearer as more seasonal weather data becomes available.
For now, Mumbaikars may want to keep expectations of a distinctly chilly winter in check, as the strengthening El Niño could make the city’s already mild winter feel even warmer than usual.
